Climate-induced health shocks, financial inclusion, and poverty dynamics in selected Sub-Saharan African Countries
Keywords:
Climate-Induced Health Shocks, Financial Inclusion, Poverty Dynamics, Sub-Saharan AfricaAbstract
This study examines the dynamic relationships among climate-induced health shocks, financial inclusion, and poverty dynamics in five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries which employing annual panel data spanning from 2000 to 2023, sourced from the World Development Indicators. The study adopts the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator within an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) panel framework. The results reveal that financial inclusion is found to significantly increase per capita consumption expenditure in the long run, confirming its role as a poverty-reducing mechanism. Thus, malaria incidence exerts a strong and statistically significant negative effect on per capita consumption, accentuating the persistent economic burden of climate-sensitive infectious disease. Particularly, cholera incidence yields no significant effect, consistent with its localised and episodic epidemiological pattern. Domestic health expenditure is positively associated with consumption over the long run, though country-level heterogeneity is pronounced. Ditto for Granger causality results confirm unidirectional causation from malaria burden and health expenditure to poverty levels. The study concludes with the following policy recommendations: as such, effective poverty alleviation in SSA requires simultaneous investment in climate-resilient health systems and inclusive financial services, with particular attention to institutional efficiency and equitable access.
Downloads
References
Adger, W. N. (2006). Vulnerability. Global environmental change, 16(3), 268-281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006
Allen, F., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., & Peria, M. S. M. (2016). The foundations of financial inclusion: Understanding ownership and use of formal accounts. Journal of financial Intermediation, 27, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2015.12.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2015.12.003
Andreevich, M. V., Bhattarai, S., Aryal, A., & Rai, N. (2020). Gender, climate, and poverty: Intersectional perspectives from South Asia. World Development, 128, 104–119.
Aryal, A., Bhattarai, S., & Rai, N. (2022). Financial access and climate-resilient agriculture in female-headed households. Journal of Rural Studies, 89, 213–225.
Ashley, C., & Carney, D. (1999). Sustainable livelihoods: Lessons from early experience (Vol. 7, No. 1). London: Department for International Development.
Berkes, F. (2017). Environmental governance for the anthropocene? Social-ecological systems, resilience, and collaborative learning. Sustainability, 9(7), 1232. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071232
Bhattarai, S. (2020). Credit access, climate resilience, and poverty: Evidence from Nepal. Environment and Development Economics, 25(4), 367–386.
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., & Wisner, B. (2014). At risk: natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters. Routledge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203714775
Caminade, C., Ndione, J. A., Diallo, M., MacLeod, D. A., Faye, O., Ba, Y., ... & Morse, A. P. (2014). Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Mauritania and related environmental conditions. International journal of environmental research and public health, 11(1), 903-918. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100903
Castaneda Aguilar, R. A., Cojocaru, A., Howton, E. L. A., Lakner, C., Nguyen, M. C., Schoch, M., ... & Yonzan, N. (2020). Poverty and shared prosperity 2020: Reversals of fortune.
Chambers, R., & Conway, G. (1992). Sustainable rural livelihoods: practical concepts for the 21st century.
Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Rehman, A., & Rauf, A. (2020). Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 12(2), 201-221. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2019-0026
Cosh, S. M., Ryan, R., Fallander, K., Robinson, K., Tognela, J., Tully, P. J., & Lykins, A. D. (2024). The relationship between climate change and mental health: a systematic review of the association between eco-anxiety, psychological distress, and symptoms of major affective disorders. BMC psychiatry, 24(1), 833. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-024-06274-1
Costello, A., Abbas, M., Allen, A., Ball, S., Bell, S., Bellamy, R., ... & Patterson, C. (2009). Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission. The lancet, 373(9676), 1693-1733. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60935-1
Cutter, S. L. (2003). The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 93(1), 1-12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8306.93101
Demirguc-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D., Ansar, S., & Hess, J. (2018). The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring financial inclusion and the fintech revolution. World Bank Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1259-0
Department for International Development (DFID). (1999). Sustainable livelihoods guidance sheets. DFID.
Dickerson, S., Cannon, M., & O’Neill, B. (2022). Climate change risks to human development in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of the literature. Climate and Development, 14(6), 571-589. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.1951644
Folke, C. (2016). Resilience (republished). Ecology and society, 21(4). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09088-210444
Füssel, H. M. (2007). Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global environmental change, 17(2), 155-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002
Hulme, D., & Shepherd, A. (2003). Conceptualizing chronic poverty. World development, 31(3), 403-423. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00222-X DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00222-X
Karami, E. (2012). Climate change, resilience and poverty in the developing world. In Culture, Politics and Climate change conference (pp. 13-15).
Kärkkäinen, L., Lehtonen, H., Helin, J., Lintunen, J., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Regina, K., ... & Packalen, T. (2020). Evaluation of policy instruments for supporting greenhouse gas mitigation efforts in agricultural and urban land use. Land Use Policy, 99, 104991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104991 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104991
Krishna, A. (2020). The dynamics of poverty. In The oxford handbook of the social science of poverty (pp. 293-314). Oxford: Oxford Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199914050.013.14
Kumar, S., & Jie, T. (2023). Climate change, financial inclusion and household welfare in developing economies. Journal of Development Economics, 162, 103–118.
Mathew, P. W., & Omodele, A. D. (2024). Climate change, fiscal fragility and child health in lower middle income Sub-Saharan Africa countries. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 8(11), 2674–2686. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.8110205
McGinnis, M. D., & Ostrom, E. (2014). Social-ecological system framework: Initial changes and continuing challenges. Ecology and Society, 19(2), 30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06387-190230
McMichael, A. J. (2013). Globalization, climate change, and human health. New England Journal of Medicine, 368(14), 1335–1343. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1109341
Omenihu, C. M., Brahma, S., Katsikas, E., Vrontis, D., Siachou, E., & Krasonikolakis, I. (2024). Financial inclusion and poverty alleviation: A critical analysis in Nigeria. Sustainability, 16(19), 8528. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su16198528
Orji, O. I., Uwaeke, G., Ndukwe-Ani, P., Inya, E., & Chima, K. (2024). Financial inclusion and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Social Psychology, 7(2).
Ostrom, E. (2009). A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science, 325(5939), 419–422. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172133
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
Pinho-Gomes, A. C., & Woodward, M. (2024). The association between gender equality and climate adaptation across the globe. BMC Public Health, 24, 1394. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18880-5
Rai, N., Aryal, A., & Bhattarai, S. (2021). Gender-blind climate policies and healthcare access in Nepal. Development Policy Review, 39(3), 445–462.
Rakodi, C. (2014). A livelihoods approach: Conceptual issues and definitions. In C. Rakodi & T. Lloyd-Jones (Eds.), Urban livelihoods (pp. 3–22). Routledge.
Ravallion, M. (2016). The economics of poverty: History, measurement, and policy. Oxford University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190212766.001.0001
Riley, E. (2018). Mobile money and risk sharing against village shocks. Journal of Development Economics, 135, 43-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.015
Sarma, M. (2012). Index of Financial Inclusion–A measure of financial sector inclusiveness. Centre for International Trade and Development, School of International Studies Working Paper Jawaharlal Nehru University. Delhi, India.
Scoones, I. (2015). Sustainable rural livelihoods and rural development. Fernwood Publishing. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3362/9781780448749.000
Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., & Reinhardt, J. (2017). Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: From physical changes to their social repercussions. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1585–1600. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2
Shah, I. A. (2025). Financial systems and poverty dynamics: A literature review on the role of institutions and fintech in economic growth. International Review of Applied Economics, 1–21.
Sinore, T., & Wang, F. (2025). Climate change impact and adaptation options in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review: T. Sinore, F. Wang. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06069-8
Thomson, M. C., Muñoz, Á. G., Cousin, R., & Shumake-Guillemot, J. (2018). Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 7(04), 15–36. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-018-0460-1
Traoré, O., & Tetka, J. B. (2025). The health and health insurance implications of climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa: A narrative review. Public Health Review, 45, 1607212. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/phrs.2024.1607212
Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., & Gasparrini, A. (2021). The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nature Climate Change, 11(6), 492–500. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x
Watts, N., Adger, W. N., Agnolucci, P., Blackstock, J., Byass, P., Cai, W., ... & Costello, A. (2015). Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. The lancet, 386(10006), 1861-1914. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6
Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beagley, J., Belesova, K., & Costello, A. (2019). The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change. The Lancet, 394(10211), 1836–1878. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6
World Bank. (2025). Financial inclusion overview. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialinclusion/overview
World Health Organization. (2023). Climate change and health. WHO Fact Sheet. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2026 International journal of health sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Articles published in the International Journal of Health Sciences (IJHS) are available under Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Authors retain copyright in their work and grant IJHS right of first publication under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Users have the right to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of articles in this journal, and to use them for any other lawful purpose.
Articles published in IJHS can be copied, communicated and shared in their published form for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given to the author and the journal. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
This copyright notice applies to articles published in IJHS volumes 4 onwards. Please read about the copyright notices for previous volumes under Journal History.
